Resumo. This study analysed the forest fragmentation of Coqueiral Environmental Protected Area (APA Coqueiral), located in Coqueiral, South region of Minas Gerais state, Brazil. The objective was to evaluate the forest fragmentation of Coqueiral APA, using landscape metrics, as well as, elaborating landscape simulation models to provide future scenarios of ecological restoration, and then, to compare these simulations to the current landscape. Land use analyses were carried out through Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques, using a SPOT 5 satellite image (SPOTMAP). Forest fragmentation was analysed by FRAGSTATS software for calculating landscape metrics such as: area, perimeter, shape, and, patch connectivity. We performed 1 and 5 m buffers maps, and a virtual restoration of the Permanent Protected Areas (APP) for landscape simulations. Landscape fragmentation analyses showed that natural vegetation is distributed within 360 patches, being 137 of them smaller than 1 ha. Landscape simulation models revealed that natural vegetation has increased from 1943.13 ha to 2299.02 ha in the restored APP simulation (natural vegetation/restored APPs = VA). The average patch size increased from 7.66 m to 15.75 m in the same simulation in comparison to the current landscape. VA showed a smaller shape value (1.93), indicating that patch shape is simpler in this simulation. This is an important result from the conservation point of view, because as simpler a shape of a patch is, smaller the edge effect is. Isolation values were not statistically different in the simulations: 38.9 m (VN); 40.64 m (VB1); 42.89 m (VB5) e 39.75 m (VA), what indicates low isolation between patches, even in the current landscape. Connectivity index was high (99%) for all simulations, indicating that landscapes have high structural connectivity. These data are relevant inputs to decision makers and to a better planning and management of the APA Coqueiral, allowing us to indicate the priority areas for conservation in this natural reserve.